Friday, March 29, 2013

United Malacca’s higher FFB production mitigates lower CPO price, says analyst

KUCHING: United Malacca Bhd (United Malacca), an oil palm plantation company with a market capitalisation of about RM1.5 billion, has seen boosted fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production which helped mitigate diminished earnings due to the lower selling price of crude palm oil (CPO) lately.
The company’s net profit of RM59 million for the first nine months of financial year 2013 ending April (9MFY13) was within expectations, making up 78 per cent of the consensus full-year FY13forecast of RM76 million.
Year on year (y-o-y), the 9MFY13 earnings declined 20 per cent due to lower CPO price which dropped 16 per cent to RM2,617 per metric tonnes (mt) but better FFB production at 272,309mt (up 17 per cent) had mitigated the earnings decline.
On a quarterly basis, the third quarter of FY13 net profit weakened by 33 per cent to RM16.1 million as CPO price dropped by 16 per cent to an average RM2,172 per mt and FFB production slowed down by five per cent to 97,515mt.
Remarking on the results, Lim Seong Chun, from the research arm of Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) said, “The current low CPO prices will limit the earnings growth excitement.
“However, the strong FFB growth of 19 per cent in FY13 should mitigate the earnings fall to a certain extent.
“We expect FY13 earnings to decline by 12 per cent y-o-y and this should keep the share price upside limited. However, United Malacca’s decent dividend yield of three per cent should provide some support to its share price,” he opined.
In an email response to The Borneo Post, Lim opined that the better FFB production was a result of increasing yield from young matured oil palms and additional area coming into maturity.
He explained that out of the company’s total planted area of 21,268 hectares, 29 per cent of the trees were still considered mature young (four to seven years old) and another 28 per cent of them were immature as at end-April 2012.
The analyst maintained Kenanga Research’s FY13 and FY14 earnings forecasts of RM75.3 million and RM84.8 million with key assumptions being 2013 and 2014 estimated average CPO prices of RM2500 to RM2700 per mt.
“We have assumed FY13 and FY14 FFB production at 337,000mt to 349,000mt,” he revealed while noting that lower than expected CPO prices remained a risk to the earnings forecasts.
In conclusion, Lim maintained the stock’s target price at RM6.70 per share based on 2013 estimated price earnings ratio of 16.7 times.
This implied a premium to United Malacca’s peers due to its double-digit FFB growth and its above-peer dividend payout of about 60 per cent, he pointed out.


Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/03/30/united-malaccas-higher-ffb-production-mitigates-lower-cpo-price-says-analyst/#ixzz2Oyk0XCqr

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Malaysia: Gains CPO power

After a slow year in 2012, Malaysian officials expect exports of crude palm oil (CPO) to expand in 2013. Prices that have fallen due to oversupply and slower demand are now on the rise again, and though they may moderate in the second half of the year, an average steady climb over the next two years seems likely.

CPO is a major export earner for the country, which is the world’s second-largest producer of the product. In 2012 Malaysia exported RM71.5 billion (US$23.03 billion) worth of palm oil, down from RM80.4 billion (US$25.9 billion) in 2011 – an all-time high.

The 11 per cent drop was largely attributed to a fall in CPO prices caused by a number of factors, including the uncertain international economic environment, a production glut and controls on the CPO trade.

The average CPO price fell 27 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) 24 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the last quarter of 2012.
Despite this, officials believed the long-term outlook for CPO exports looked sound. In February Hamzah Zainuddin, deputy minister of plantation industries and commodities, said he expected CPO exports to exceed the 2011 record within three to five years. Even given ongoing issues of inventory surplus, the ministry forecast growth in 2013, partly thanks to an export tax cut.

From January, the government brought the levy down from 23 per cent to a sliding scale between 4.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent; if the CPO price falls below RM2,250 (US$725), the tax will be cancelled. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest CPO exporter, raised its export tax from 7.5 per cent to nine per cent in January.

Mohammad Jaaffar Ahmad, chief executive officer of the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (PORAM), said his members were already ‘seeing better margins as they ramp up production’. Jaaffar said rising exports would help lower Malaysia’s inventory, which was in substantial surplus at 2.53 million tonnes at the end of January 2013, to a ‘manageable level’ of two million tonnes.
In the first half of February, Malaysian palm oil shipments rose 18 per cent, to 673,555 tonnes, following a 10 per cent decline in output and 1.6 per cent fall in exports in January, the former partly attributable to a run-down of existing stocks and seasonal factors.

Rabobank, a Dutch agricultural bank, said it expected Malaysia’s palm oil production to fall two per cent y-o-y in the first six months of 2013 as the inventory was fed into exports.

However, Malaysia-based Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) said that it did not expect stocks to fall below two million tonnes in the first quarter of 2013 due to lower export demand.

Jaafaar said he expected the price of CPO to rise as inventories ran down. In early February, it climbed to around the RM2,250 (US$725) tax threshold, and by the end of the month, it stood at RM2,330 (US$751).

Meanwhile, futures for delivery in April topped RM2,500 (US$805) in mid-February. Officials took the view that prices had now bottomed out, as the surplus fell and a number of demand factors kicked in, but also due to a seasonal drop in production.

Local press reported that analysts expected prices to rise to RM2,600 to RM2,700 (US$838 to US$870) by the middle of 2013. Kuala Lumpur-based RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd, said it had a price assumption of RM2,800 (US$902) per tonne for 2013, rising to RM3,000 (US$966) in 2014.
It expected prices to fall again in the second half of this year due to the seasonal rise in output.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Research expected an average price of RM2,500 to RM2,700 (US$805 to US$870) this year and next, and took a more bearish view on planters’ stocks than some of its counterparts.
PublicInvest Research had a neutral recommendation, expecting an average price of RM2,750 (US$886) this year and RM2,850 (US$918) in 2013.

As ever, CPO prices will be strongly influenced by the global economic situation, particularly by major importers, such as China and India.
India’s proposal to levy a tax on CPO imports concerns Malaysian planters, for whom the country is the second-largest market.

With the worldwide economy expected to grow only moderately in 2013 and 2014, it is little surprise that CPO prices are unlikely to reach the peaks seen five years ago. However, as oversupply moderates, a steady rise should boost the sector.


Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/03/17/malaysia-gains-cpo-power/#ixzz2NkveZORY

Cabaran yang dihadapi oleh pekebun kecil

Tidak seperti yang diimpikan, banyak cabaran yang dihadapi oleh pekebun kecil kelapa sawit masa masa sekarang. Saya telah menanam 1,000 pokok pada tahun 2008.

Dengan modal sebanyak lebih kurang RM50,000 saya telah berjaya menanam pokok sawit yang sederhana pertumbuhannya sehingga menghasilkan buah pada tahun 2011.

Dibawah adalah masalah yang dihadapi;
1. Harga input yang mahal eg baja hasil jualan tidak dapat menampung kos pembajaan kerana harga sawit hanya RM400 se tan
2. Tenaga buruh yang semakin meningkat
3. Tiada bantuan atau soft loan yang dapat membantu kerana bank memberi syarat yang terlalu ketat
4. Kebanyakkan tanah di Sarawak adalah NCR dimana tidak ada geran tanah untuk dicagarkan






Friday, March 15, 2013

Palm oil drop to one-week low



Palm declined to the lowest level in a week on concern that the advancing soybean harvest in Brazil will boost oilseed supplies, depressing demand for the tropical oil. Futures in Dalian fell to the lowest since 2010.

The contract for May delivery lost 0.5 per cent to end at RM2,399 a metric tonne on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the lowest most-active price at close since March 6. Futures have lost 29 per cent in the past year as supplies outpaced demand.

About 48 per cent of Brazil’s soybean crop was harvested as of March 8, compared with 46 per cent a year earlier, according to researcher Safras & Mercado. The country is set to overtake the US this year as the top exporter of the beans that can be crushed to make soybean oil.

"Supplies will be ample in the market for both soybeans and palm oil" from May onwards, Chandran Sinnasamy, head of trading at LT International Futures Sdn Bhd, said by phone from Kuala Lumpur. "High stock levels in China" are also a concern.

Stockpiles of imported palm oil at ports tracked by Grain.gov.cn climbed to a record 1.28 million tonnes, up 70,000 tonnes from a week earlier, the state-owned researcher said March 8. Exports from Malaysia, the second-largest producer, fell 14 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes in February for a fourth monthly drop, according to the nation’s palm oil board.

Refined palm oil for delivery in September dropped 2.6 per cent to end at 6,340 yuan (US$1,020) a tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the lowest price at close for the most-active contract since July 2010. Soybean oil for delivery in the same month declined 1.4 per cent to end at 8,042 yuan a tonne.

About 10.5 million tonnes of soybeans and products made from the oilseed are scheduled for shipment on vessels berthed, arrived or expected at major ports in Brazil as of March 12, up from 10.27 million tonnes a week earlier, SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos said yesterday.

Soybean oil for May delivery declined 0.5 per cent to 49.72 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybeans for May delivery retreated 0.4 per cent to US$14.635 a bushel. Soybean oil was about 1.42 times costlier than palm.-- Bloomberg



Read more: Palm oil drops to one-week low http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20130313184006/Article/index_html#ixzz2NcKd867t

Friday, March 8, 2013

MPOB expects CPO production to increase to 19 million tonnes this year

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production to increase to 18.9 million tonnes for this year from 18.79 million tonnes last year.

MPOB director-general Datuk Dr Choo Yuen May said the board was expecting Malaysia’s CPO price to be firm in 2013 due to increasing demand from major importing countries.

“We are expecting a recovery in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) yield coupled with an increase in new mature areas will likely to boost the production,” she said during her presentation on performance of the Malaysian palm oil industry in 2012 and prospects for 2013.

She said the restructuring of Malaysian CPO export tax would raise Malaysian competitiveness in the palm oil downstream sector.

MPOB head of trade development unit N. Balu said Malaysia was hoping to conclude a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Turkey by the end of this year to reduce import tariffs on selected palm oil products.

“Turkey has been identified as the gateway to European market and the FTA will play a vital role for Malaysia’s palm products to enter that market,” he told reporters after presenting his paper on FTA update and prospects for palm products at the palm oil economic review and outlook seminar here yesterday.

“The current tariffs impose on selected palm oil products entering the Turkey market average 31.2%, and through the FTA, we are trying to reduce as much as possible,” he said.

He told StarBiz two FTAs were still under negotiations - between Malaysia and European Union (EU) and the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP).

“Malaysian palm oil exporters would benefit from FTA through preferential treatment and market access. Exporters would also enjoy cost savings from elimination or reduction of import tariffs in partner country and from mutual recognition agreements, trade facilitating Customs procedures and removal of stringent regulations,” he said.

Malaysia has been involved in the successful completion of six six bilateral and six regional FTAs.

The bilateral FTAs signed are those with Japan, Pakistan, India, New Zealand, Chile and Australia repectively.

He said that Malaysia is also party to Asean Free Trade Agreement, Asean-Japan Close Economic Partnership Agreement, Asean Korea Free Trade Agreement, Asean-China Free Trade Agreement, Asean–Australia and New Zealand Free Trade.

“Most of the concluded FTAs have thus far resulted in yielding comparative advantage to the Malaysian palm oil industry, particularly in increased export volume of palm products,” he said. He also said FTAs play a significant role to Malaysia as exports of Malaysian palm products to India has shown a significant increase after a FTA.
The Star

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Countering Prejudices Against Palm Oil

WESTERN lobby groups have been running down the palm oil industry because they view the golden crop’s healthful profile as a formidable threat to their hegemony in producing and marketing their own soy, rapeseed and corn oils.

In their smear campaigns, these groups have even claimed oil palm cultivation destroys rainforests and their wildlife habitats and also lays to waste large swathes of otherwise productive agricultural land.

However, studies show oil palm is one of the most productive of all the oilseed crops with an enviable yield of more than 4.5 metric tons per hectare as against the miniscule 0.5 metric tons yield typical of its competitors such as soy, rapeseed and sunflower.

Such high productivity means less land is required for oil palm to produce the same amount of oil as the competing oil seeds. The oil palm tree is also sturdy, remaining productive for 20 to 30 years and harvestable annually without replanting whereas the other oil crops have to be replanted annually.

In Malaysia, an oil palm plantation — because it is highly productive — can be established on legitimate agricultural land without the need to clear forests indiscriminately. That is why Malaysia still has a forest cover close to 70 per cent despite planting oil palm for more than a century and being hitherto the world’s largest palm oil producer.

In stark contrast, the industrial west from where the self-styled paragons of conservation originate can hardly claim 20 per cent forest cover.

World Growth, a non-profit NGO, agrees that palm oil is highly sustainable in developing economies. Only 0.26 hectare of land is required to produce a tonne of palm oil whereas soybean, sunflower and rapeseed need 2.2 hectares, two hectares and 1.5 hectares, respectively, to produce the same quantity of oil.

What this means is that soybean requires eight times more land to produce the same quantity of oil compared to palm oil.

Oil palm cultivation has also been blamed for the imminent extinction of the orangutan but such finger-pointing is as spiteful and as it is illogical since the primates’ population in the wild in Borneo alone is estimated between 45,000 and 69,000.

So how is it possible, even remotely, for the orangutan to become extinct within the next three or four years as claimed. The numbers just don’t add up, especially with on-going efforts to protect the big apes in conservation enclaves set up in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

The lobbyists have stooped to the chicanery of making ludicrous claims to advance their agenda but people are no longer easily fooled by their ulterior motives.

In a recent development regarding palm oil, the French Senate threw out a budget containing a proposal to increase tax on the commodity.

The reason for the rejection was that the proposal not only had no scientific basis but also contained an “inflammatory and baseless” tax on palm oil — up by 300 per cent from around 100 British pounds (RM397) to 400 British pounds (RM1,587).

Shorn of its selective perception, the proposal is tantamount to an unwarranted and unjustified attack against hundreds of thousands of small farmers across our country. Its rejection is, thus, wholly justified.

The French senator, Yves Daudigny, who tabled the proposal, claimed palm oil was “most rich in saturated fats and its harmful effect on health has already been established.”

Such frivolity does not stand up to well-founded research showing that palm oil, being a vegetable oil, is actually cholesterol-free
and good for heart health as it is rich in heart-friendly anti-oxidants.

The French senator is also ignorant of a proven fact — that the bulk of saturated fats consumed in France comes from animal sources such as meat, milk, cheese and butter – NOT palm oil. In fact, consumption of fats from animal sources amounts to 34.4 kg a year while palm oil consumption per capita in France is only 2kg.

Despite the scientifc proofs and solid stats, the lobby groups continue to discredit palm oil. Is it about the environment or plain economic jealousy? Obviously, the latter.

The upside is the opportunity presented for Malaysia and France to work together in returning to a science-based discussion and countering public perception of palm oil, currently based on hyperbole instead of truth.

We should look forward to working with those of our enlightened overseas partners — through a government-sponsored joint task force — to check the lies being spread about palm oil.

And hopefully, the proposed inflammatory tax on the commodity will be consigned to the dross of history. The Borneo Post