Oil Palm Integration with livestock and Banana

Banana integration with Oil Palm is one of the best option for dwi purpose of land utilization. Integratiion with AAR  at 25 months.

Integration with boer goat.

Integration with Brahman cattle using greenlot concept.

Swiftlet house for EBN production.

El-Nino Effect on Oil Palm

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Research maintains its 'neutral' call on the plantations sector on lack of short-term catalysts.

"Overall, second quarter of 2014 core net profits of all plantation groups should be stronger, but will still be mostly within our expectations. Bumitama (Bal), TSH Resources (TSH) and Ta Ann Holdings (TA Ann) have the potential to surprise on the upside, while TH Plantations (THP) and Felda Global Ventures (FGV) could surprise on the downside. For Ta Ann, the upside will come from stronger-than-expected timber earnings.

"We reiterate our view that crude palm oil (CPO) price will remain weaken till Aug 2014, ranging between RM2,400-2,600 per tonne before trending higher in fourth quarter 2014. We however believe there is limited downside risk to CPO price at the current level of RM2,300 per tonne as long as crude oil price stays at US$100-110 per barrel.

"We maintain our 'neutral' view on the sector for the short term. Key upside risk to our view is the development of a strong El Niño and war. Our fundamental 'buys' in the region are BAL, First Resources (FR), Wilmar, Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), Ta Ann, Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP) and Sime Darby. "Sells' are on IOI Corp and THP," says Maybank in its research notes.

Maybank said that all plantation groups under its coverage (except FGV), reported stronger fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output for second quarter 2014.

"Also, almost all reported higher FFB output with the exception of Genting Plantations (GENP). BAL( +49 per cent), TSH (+33 per cent), AALI(+22 per cent) and GENP (+21 per cent) posted strongest FFB growth in second quarter. Meanwhile, slower growth was experienced by FGV (-2 per cent), THP (+5 per cent), and FR (+6 per cent).

"Besides robust production, second quarter 2014 results will also be augmented by higher CPO spot average selling price (ASP) for the Malaysian planters at RM2,576 per tonne (MPOB) in 2Q14 (+11 per cent), and Indonesian planters at Rp9,513 per kg (+23 per cent)."

Maybank noted that ahead of Indonesia’s Presidential Election on July 9, the IDR had weakened against the US dollar in second quarter to 11,855, after it strengthened in first quarter.

"Planters with Indonesian operations and US dollar-denominated debt (namely TSH, GENP, BAL and AALI) will likely recognise chunky unrealised forex translation losses (as their reporting currencies are in RM or IDR), reversing most of the unrealised forex translation gain recognised in first quarter 2014. This is however non cash flow, merely accounting in nature."- NTSP

AAR Hybrida selepas 25 bulan.

Selepas 25 bulan penanaman di ladang, AAR Hybrida ini mula menunjukkan hasil yang mengalakkan. Pemunggutan hasil pertama dijangka akan dilakukan pada bulan ogos ini. 

Palm set for bear market as record soybean reserves loom

PALM oil tumbled to the lowest level in nine months and was poised to enter a bear market after the US government forecast record inventories of soybeans used to produce an alternative cooking oil.

Futures dropped as much as 1.3 per cent to RM2,316 a metric tonne on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest level since Oct 7. A close at RM2,320 would be 20 per cent less than the RM2,901 settlement on March 10, meeting the common definition of a bear market. Prices ended the morning session at RM2,318.

Palm, used in everything from food to biofuels, slumped 13 per cent this year as usage in biodiesel trailed estimates amid expanding production.

Record stockpiles of soybeans are adding to a global glut of cooking oils as increasing supplies send prices of corn and wheat into bear markets, cutting world food costs measured by the United Nations for a third month in June. Petroleum prices have also dropped for three straight weeks.

“The declines in soybean oil and crude oil will weigh heavily on palm,” said David Ng, a Kuala Lumpur-based derivatives specialist at Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd. “The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed quite significantly and a lot of buyers are shifting to other alternatives, mainly soybean oil and sunflower.”

Palm oil’s discount to soybean oil narrowed 70 per cent in the past year to about US$84 a tonne, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s encouraging refiners in India, the world’s largest palm buyer, to turn to soybean and sunflower oils.

India’s palm imports probably fell for a second month in June to 625,000 tonnes from a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey showed last week.

Futures may rally less than earlier forecast as demand misses estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. Prices may climb to RM2,800 by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said on June 26, cutting his March forecast for an increase to RM3,500.

Production in Indonesia may reach a record 30.5 million tonnes or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total an all-time high of 19.7 million tonnes to 19.9 million tonnes, according to Mistry. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for 86 percent of world supplies.

US farmers will harvest 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans this year, compared with 3.635 billion estimated in June and last year’s crop of 3.289 billion, the Department of Agriculture estimates. World output will be 304.8 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 300 million tons, while inneventories will be a record 85.31 million tonnes, the agency said on July 11.

Soybean oil futures were little changed at 36.93 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade, after declining 1.7 per cent on July 11. Soybeans slumped to US$10.65 on July 11, the lowest level since October 2010, and traded at US$10.6875 yesterday. Prices declined for a 10th day through July 11, the longest slump since 1973.

Refined palm oil for January delivery fell as much as 2.2 per cent to 5,676 yuan (US$914) a tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the lowest level since Jan 30, before trading at 5,710 yuan. Soybean oil lost as much as 1.3 per cent to 6,468 yuan, lowest price since Jan 30. — Bloomberg

Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/07/15/palm-set-for-bear-market-as-record-soybean-reserves-loom/#ixzz37g3XXoYl

El Nino: A wild card for planters by Adrian Lim

Weather, as one of the more important aspects for palm oil planters to worry about for their production during the year, is rapidly changing

A sudden change in weather condition – especially dry and hot weather for a extended period – can negatively affect production and output of palm oil.

As one of the plantation experts Dorab Mistry said, the weather is expected to shape the production and price of the crude palm oil (CPO) this year.

“In the event that El Nino develops, I believe CPO futures will cling to RM3,000 beyond June.

“(Palm oil) production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be staring (at) RM3,500.

“However if rains come as normal and the high cycle kicks in from July onwards, prices can trade in a range between RM2,900 and RM2,600 from July until October.

“Palm oil production is under-performing and stocks are tight,” he said during a palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur earlier this year.

At the same time, Mistry highlighted some new developments within the oil palm industry which could steer the palm oil market into a new dynamic cycle.

“There is going to be a big expansion of bio diesel capacity in Indonesia in the near future.

“This capacity will require bio diesel producers to lock in palm oil prices at least one year in advance. Almost all of them will be plantation linked.

“Hence, the availability of freely tradable palm oil will become somewhat restricted. It will also require much larger stocks to be maintained.

“Therefore, palm oil stocks will need to be much larger before they begin to exert any pressure on prices.

“For these reasons, I believe the Indonesian mandate is truly a ‘Game Changer’ and will keep palm oil prices relatively high for a long time,” Mistry observed.

On the contrary, he believed there is a small likelihood of production surpassing expectation if rainfall is better than normal.

“If prices of Brent (crude oil) fall and production of world oilseeds is also as expected, palm oil prices can fall below RM2,400 but that possibility is no more than 30 per cent,” he pointed out.

While Mistry, a director of India-based Godrej International Ltd, has his own view on the palm oil market, local analysts hinted at a similar scenario, citing  change in weather conditions and palm oil inventory level being the prime aspects affecting the outlook of the plantation industry.

M&A Securities Sdn Bhd (M&A Securities) in a report dated June 26 entitled ‘Betting on El-Nino for palm oil price up-cycle’ said weather plays an important role in the supply equation of production and yield, and particularly one of the key catalysts of CPO price movement.

The hot and dry weather of late is expected to persist for another few months as predicted by the Malaysian Meteorlogical Department. The situation has cause caustic reaction as people wonder whether El-Nino spell had started or otherwise.

Citing the Department of Meteorlogical Malaysia, M&A Securities said the current situations are due to the Southwest Monsoon (dry season for Malaysia) that has started in May and is expected to persist until September.

Surveys by international weather forecasters still indicated that there is a 70 per cent likelihood of the El Nino happening in 2014.

Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/07/13/el-nino-a-wild-card-for-planters/#ixzz37MaXnHdO

AAR Seedling, 25 Months after field planting

1. A modern oil palm plantation needs a grower who has learned how to cultivate oil palms.

   Growing selected oil palms is not just a matter of picking the fruit; it is a modern crop.
   The grower must learn how to do his work well.
   The grower should ask for advice, so that he learns to do better and better.

   The grower must think about his work and plan it, so that he can always do his work at the right time.
   Selected oil palms give the grower much more work than the natural trees, but they yield much more.

   An oil palm grower is a modern farmer.
   With the money he earns he can buy for his family what they need, and he can modernize his farm.

BEFORE STARTING THINK THINGS OVER CAREFULLY

An oil palm begins to produce 3 or 4 years after it has been planted.
During that time the grower must spend money and work hard, without harvesting any fruit or earning any money.

2. To make a modern oil palm plantation takes money.

   Most often you will have to pay workmen for clearing the site of the plantation and removing tree stumps.

   Then you must buy seedlings and fertilizers.
   Unless you apply fertilizers to the oil palms when they are still young, they will not grow well and you will have to wait a longer time before you can begin to harvest.

   You may also have to pay workers to help you look after the young plantation. Weeds must not be allowed to get in the way of the oil palms, and the trees must be protected from damage by rats and agoutis.

   All this work takes a lot of time, and this means that you may not have enough time to look after large fields of food crops.
   You may have to buy food for your family.
   Before you start an oil palm plantation, you must calculate carefully whether you will be able to pay all these expenses.

3. To grow oil palms takes a lot of work.

   
   

My 25 months AAR seedling growing quite well and started to bare fruit.